Definition of Probability Based on Already Happened Outcomes: Application in Identifying Rainy and Non-Rainy Period

Abstract

The concept of empirical probability has been applied in defining the probability of occurrence of rainfall in terms of rainy days on the basis of the data on already happened outcomes and then the definition has been applied in estimating probabilities of occurrences of different numbers of rainy days at four stations in India namely Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi with an objective of identifying rainy & non-rainy periods at these stations. It has been found from the study that at each of the four stations there does not exist any month which is certain to be completely non-rainy while at Mumbai, the period January – April is almost certain to be non-rainy and that the periods September – November, June – September, July – September & July – August are certain to be rainy at Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai & New Delhi respectively while the period June – August is the common rainy period of these four stations.